According to reports, Arsenal, who eliminated defending champions Real Madrid with a 5-1 aggregate victory at the Santiago Bernabéu, now lead with a 28.7% chance of lifting the trophy.

With their Premier League title hopes fading, Arsenal has shifted focus entirely to Europe and enters the semi-finals in strong form.
Mikel Arteta’s side will face Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) in the semi-finals. Opta ranks the French club third with a 24% chance after their 5-4 aggregate win over Aston Villa.

Surprisingly, Inter Milan, runners-up two years ago, rank second with a 25.5% chance. Barcelona, currently leading La Liga, have the lowest odds (21.8%) among the four teams to claim their sixth title.

The gap between the four teams is narrow, with just a 7% difference separating Barcelona and Arsenal. The two sides could meet in a repeat of the 2006 final.

Opta calculates each team’s title chances by combining betting odds with its power rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances. These rankings are then simulated 10,000 times to determine the outcome.

Before the quarter-finals, Barcelona had the highest odds among the eight teams, but they now sit at the bottom of the list.
Hansi Flick’s side demolished Borussia Dortmund in the first leg but showed vulnerabilities in a 3-1 second-leg defeat, significantly impacting Opta’s calculations.

Arsenal fans might be wary of the “favorites” label, as the club has never won the competition. However, their dominant performance against Real Madrid has cemented their status as frontrunners.

Arsenal’s first-leg semi-final against PSG will take place on Tuesday, April 29, while Barcelona and Inter Milan clash at the Olympic Stadium on Wednesday night.