According to reports, Real Madrid’s logical chance of advancing is 4%, but historically, it’s 50%. The team has repeatedly defied statistics, and its current players, who have experience in dramatic comebacks, must create another miracle tonight.

The Bernabeu crowd, perhaps the most loyal in the world, injects faith into the team. However, Real Madrid, which hasn’t delivered brilliant football throughout the season, must show a different quality tonight. The result of this match will not only determine Carlo Ancelotti’s fate but also the potential changes for the team next season.

The 3-0 defeat in the first leg and Real Madrid’s poor performance make failure three times more likely than a miracle. However, Real still has reasons to hope. Arsenal arrives with injured players like Gabriel Magalhães, Calafiori, Tomiyasu, Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus, and the absence of Jorginho. Thomas Partey, who trained normally yesterday, will likely play. Arteta, who benched five key players in the last match against Brentford, will probably repeat the first-leg lineup. If Partey isn’t ready, Merino will return to his natural role, and Trossard will play as a false nine.

Bernabeu is Real Madrid’s second trump card. Arsenal’s young players, with little experience in the Champions League (Saka 15 games, Rice 20, Ødegaard 19), are unfamiliar with the volatile and hostile atmosphere of this stadium. In contrast, Real has an experienced team: Modrić with 141 games, Courtois 87, Mbappé 86, and Vinícius 67 Champions League appearances. This experience has been key in Real’s historic comebacks.

However, experience and the Bernabeu atmosphere alone aren’t enough. Real’s attacking line, including Rodrygo, Vinícius, Mbappé, and Bellingham, isn’t in ideal form. Rodrygo has scored one goal in two and a half months, Vinícius one in six games, Mbappé has struggled against big teams, and Bellingham hasn’t scored in major matches. These four stars haven’t yet clicked against top teams. Defensively, after nine clean sheets, Real conceded three goals in the first leg. One more goal from Arsenal could seal the deal.

Ancelotti has Camavinga, the team’s balance point, available for this match, and Valverde will likely play alongside him. This setup may bench Modrić, with Lucas Vázquez, more effective in attack, playing at right-back.

Fran García will defend on the left, especially to contain Saka, Arsenal’s 23-year-old star. Saka, with 10 goals and 14 assists, is Arsenal’s best player and troubled Real’s defense in the first leg. Declan Rice, another Arsenal star, is the team’s most expensive English signing at £120 million and, as one of the Premier League’s best midfielders, believes Arsenal is ready to shine at this stage.

Although statistics suggest a Real comeback is impossible, the Bernabeu and Real’s history of surprises in the Champions League invite Arsenal to be cautious. This match will be a test for Real and a turning point for the team’s future.