Tonight’s derby between Inter and AC Milan is a turning point for both teams, each with different goals, tactics, and motivations. Inter, led by Simone Inzaghi, is fighting to keep their treble dream alive, while AC Milan, under coach Sergio Conceicao, seeks dominance in the city and redemption for a disappointing season.

This match, the fifth derby of the season, is part of the Coppa Italia semi-finals, and its outcome could determine the path for both teams.

For Inter, this derby is an opportunity to recover from their bitter defeat against Bologna in Serie A and maintain hopes of a treble. Inter is currently tied with Napoli at the top of Serie A and is on the verge of the Champions League semi-finals against Barcelona.

The pressure on Inzaghi and his team is unprecedented. Winning the Coppa Italia, though less prestigious than Serie A and the Champions League, is crucial for morale and the treble dream. A loss could deal a heavy blow to the team, shattering the treble dream and increasing doubts and tensions. Inter has played 50 matches this season, conceding an average of 0.82 goals per game, showcasing a solid defense. However, in the four derbies this season, they have conceded 7 goals against Milan, indicating relative vulnerability against their traditional rivals.

AC Milan, on the other hand, has had a disappointing season. Ninth place in Serie A is humiliating for a club of Milan’s stature, and elimination from the Champions League was an economic and reputational blow. Winning the Coppa Italia could soothe these wounds, bring a ticket to the Europa League, and allow Conceicao to leave with two titles (after the Super Cup).

However, even winning the Coppa Italia cannot fully salvage AC Milan’s semi-successful season. For Milan fans, defeating Inter and preventing their rivals from achieving a treble is a strong motivation, but this is not an “all or nothing” game. Milan’s expectations were much higher. In 48 matches this season, Milan has conceded an average of 1.18 goals per game, not much different from Inter, but their attack, despite the brilliance of Christian Pulisic and Tammy Abraham (each with two goals in derbies), has been inconsistent and reliant on a few key players.

Tactically, this derby has interesting differences. Inter plays with Inzaghi’s classic 3-5-2 system, while Milan has recently switched to Conceicao’s 3-4-3. This new Milan system was successful in the 4-0 win against Udinese but failed in the 1-0 loss to Atalanta.

Tonight, this system will be tested against Inter. Milan may face a 3 vs. 2 challenge in midfield unless Pulisic drops back to help the midfielders. There is also the possibility of Conceicao reverting to a four-man defense, which was successful in the previous four derbies (two wins and two draws).

Inter’s attack, without Marcus Thuram and with a tired Lautaro Martinez, is heavily dependent on the Argentine star, while backup options like Marko Arnautovic and Mehdi Taremi have sometimes been disappointing. In Milan, Abraham has been chosen as the main striker, but Rafael Leao and Luka Jovic have had inconsistent performances.

This derby is more than just a match; it is a test of ambition and resilience for both teams. Inter is fighting to keep its big dream alive, and Milan is fighting to restore its lost pride. The result of this match could save a season or turn it into a disaster.

Probable Lineups:

Inter: Sommer, Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni, Darmian, Frattesi, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto, Lautaro Martinez, Arnautovic.

AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Alex Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez, Pulisic, Tammy Abraham, Rafael Leao.