Four Main Contenders and Others
The Most Unpredictable Ballon d’Or of the Century
For the first time in 21 years, the race for the Ballon d’Or is this close and unpredictable, making it truly unique.
According to “Varzesh3,” the UEFA Champions League finalists have been determined. Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain will compete for the European title on May 31 in Munich. This match will capture global attention, sparking speculation about the most prestigious individual annual award, the Ballon d’Or, presented by France Football and UEFA.
Undoubtedly, the Champions League, Europe’s most prestigious tournament, has always played a key role in determining the Ballon d’Or winner, though not always decisively. For example, last year, Rodri, Manchester City’s midfielder, won the award despite being eliminated in the quarter-finals, thanks to his Premier League and Euro victories with Spain.
Now, besides domestic competitions and the May 31 final, two other major events remain: the UEFA Nations League finals featuring Spain, France, Germany, and Portugal, and the Club World Cup, a new and prestigious tournament that could play a significant role in determining the winner. In this uncertain scenario, several prominent names have emerged, without overlooking players who might shine in upcoming tournaments.
Barcelona’s Candidates
Barcelona’s season has been brilliant. Despite their Champions League semi-final loss to Inter, the team, led by Hansi Flick, has already secured the Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey, with La Liga within reach. The upcoming El Clásico will be decisive. Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, and Pedri are the main contenders for the Ballon d’Or.
These three key Barcelona players are in an excellent position, especially if they secure the La Liga title. Raphinha, with 32 goals and 25 assists in 53 games, leads statistically, but his absence from the Club World Cup or Nations League might reduce his chances.
Lamine Yamal (15 goals, 24 assists in 51 games) and Pedri (6 goals, 7 assists in 55 games) have a better chance with Spain in the Nations League, especially if they win another title with the national team. Robert Lewandowski, with 40 goals across all competitions and on track for the Golden Boot, is also a strong contender.
Dembélé, Lautaro, and the Weight of the Champions League
Ousmane Dembélé and Lautaro Martínez, stars of the two Champions League finalists, are undoubtedly among the Ballon d’Or candidates. Dembélé, under Luis Enrique and after Kylian Mbappé’s departure, has taken charge of PSG’s attack. With 33 goals and 12 assists in 45 games, he has already won Ligue 1 and the French Super Cup and still has a chance to shine in the Coupe de France final (May 24 vs. Reims), Champions League final, Club World Cup, and Nations League with France.
Lautaro Martínez, with 22 goals and 7 assists, could bring Inter their fourth European title and win Serie A, though Napoli leads by three points with three games left. Inter’s participation in the Club World Cup could also boost his chances.
Unexpected Candidates and the Dual Role of the Club World Cup and Nations League
As mentioned, June’s competitions—the Nations League and Club World Cup—could be decisive in the absence of the Euros or World Cup. In this hypothetical scenario, names like Kylian Mbappé emerge. Despite a less successful season with Real Madrid, Mbappé, with 35 goals and 4 assists in 51 games, is on the verge of becoming Real’s best newcomer. He will compete in these tournaments with France and Real and still has a chance to win La Liga and the Golden Boot.
Mohamed Salah, who won the Premier League with Liverpool, with 33 goals and 23 assists in 49 games, and Harry Kane, with 36 goals and 12 assists, Bundesliga top scorer and champion with Bayern Munich, also have strong cases. Even goalkeepers like Gianluigi Donnarumma and Yann Sommer could have a chance if their teams win the Champions League or Club World Cup.
2004, the Last Unpredictable Year
Given recent changes in Ballon d’Or voting criteria, we must look back to the early 2000s for a similarly uncertain season. In 2004, Andriy Shevchenko won with 29 goals and 9 assists and only a Serie A title.